Saturday, August 1, 2009

Keep It Simple, Sit with Your Gains

The Market

let's keep this market comments short. There has not been any material change since the market follow through on July 13.

The philosophy of my trading has not been focused on trying to guess where the market is going to do next, but rather trying to understand what the market is currently doing.

I take cues from the basic law of supply/demand. News events, Market comments from Wall Street, to me, are mostly noise. The economic indexes are all lagging indicators.

The market could top out in a week or next day, but until it clearly tells me so, I continue to hold my top gainers.

Remember the big money is made by sitting, not by trading. This is exactly what I did last week. I only made two trades, initiated a buy on UTA, sold half of CISG to lock in partial gains.

Let's focus on the big pictures,

  • The housing stocks are in the bottoming process, which bode well for housing recovery. (XHB/ITB)
  • 200MA of Major indexes (Nasdaq, S&P500) are flattening and curving up. With the golden cross of 50MA/200MA in June, a classic uptrend is established.
In the short term, the market continues to be overbought. The sentiment is a little frothy.

Let's watch what the market will bring us next week.

The Port

There is little action from me other than watching my core holdings.

BIDU

BIDU continues to act as the de facto leader of the Chinese market. With the Chinese stock market leads the world market to recovery, there is little doubt where the money is going. The price/volume action is very constructive. The fundamental side of the story supports the price higher.

Hold for now unless there is a material change of the market direction.


CISG

This little thin Chinese insurance company has enjoyed an enormous run since I entered my first buy on July 15. The high volume sell off last Friday could mean it could use some rest. Sell half.


GMCR

Could this little coffee maker be another Taser or HANS?

Beautiful stock! HOLD!




NTES

NTES is the strongest stock (with PWRD) in Chinese gaming market. In face of some Chinese gaming stocks broken down last week (CYOU, SNDA), NTES continues to hold up rather well. Earnings will be out in two weeks.

Hold!


EJ and CHLN

HOLD




UTA

Another Chinese stock broke out a two month trading range on 07.28.2009. Group peer includes Ctrip and Priceline. Last quarter sales growth 72%, EPS growth: 75%. The stock is on the thin side with average trading volume of 400K.

Bought the first position on July 28, 2009 with pivot buy of 12.70.