Wednesday, August 11, 2010

This low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book ...

Very ugly sell off in high vol puts the market back into correction mode. The 6+ week low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book.

There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.

Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,

SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.

Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.

There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.

All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.

Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.

The idea of trending follow is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. Those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.

No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.

Raise cash.