Wednesday, March 23, 2011

A replay of Feb - Apr 2010 stock market ahead?

With Japan behind us and on going saga over the middle east, US stock market is trying to get on its footing after 4 weeks of big sell off. One interesting observation comparing to the same period last year is the timeline of Quantitative Easing.

QE1 ended on the first quarter of 2010, although it took a little time for the securities to settle on the balance sheet. Market topped on Apr 2010, which started the 4 month intermediate correction causing the Nasdaq to correct more than 18% (short of 20% bear market threshold).

QE2 will end on June 2011. With Fed behind the market lifting the boat, I doubt the market will enter a much worse correction. A replay of Feb-Apr 2010 stock market is ahead of us?

BIDU breaks out of a 5 week flat base today to new high with convincing vol. The ability for it to hold gains next days ahead will provide some clues if the on going rally attempt will have any ammo left.

There are not many solid growth stocks left in terms of constructive chart patterns (chart patterns discloses the supply/demand relationships in the stock market, so never dismiss them as useless out of ignorance). To name a few, bidu, nflx, lulu, tibx/infa (oracle will report tomorrow), open, gmcr etc. The names are getting shorter and shorter meaning the market is too stretched out of the 2 year bull run. One day the big boyz will threw a bear market to clean the plate anew.

Silver is make history again. If Fed decides to do QE3 .... Bang ... Silver will go to 100 :-)