Change of the market character?

Heavy distribution from the top. Are we embarking on a short term correction of 3-5% or an intermediate correction of 10+-%? No one knows, guess need not, let the market tell us what it wants to do. Either case, be prepared.

Several developments have called the market correction overdue,

First of all, top growth stocks have been quite extended. Look at AAPL or BIDU, the law of normality calls for correction.

2nd, bearish break downs in emerging market. Shanghai stock index has lead the word market out of the recession, but it has been lagging US market badly for the past 6 months. The technical picture of Shanghai Stock index looks very bearish, the deterioration of Chinese ADRs (except a few, e.g. BIDU, VIT, CTRP) over the past several months calls for deeper correction in Chinese market.

3rd, distribution days are piling up. Regardless what the news are which trigger the sell off, the unequivocal selling from big boyz should raise your alert level.

When market starts to correct, it is prudent to raise cash, move off margins, monitor closely the current holdings. In bear phases, next leaders usually emerge as the strongest candidates which go through shallower corrections and show stronger relative strength.

There is no need to sell out all your winners. If you enjoy a healthy gain of 20% in AAPL when it broke out of its last base on Mar 5th, you may decide to sit through the correction. The ability to hold on to big winners over time is the crucial step toward winning big $.

高手与普通散户的区别 （转摘)

顶尖高手用境界，一流高手用趋势，二流高手用技术，普通散户用迷糊。最高境界的人在讲心境如何，什么也不看，只用感觉就能炒好股赚钱。我说顶尖高手是走过迷 糊阶段。用趋势的人说趋势无敌，看明白了趋势你就能赚钱，用技术的人说，你什么也不信，踏踏实实的学好技术，你就能赚钱，惟有许多散户没有自己的方法，没 有自己的主张，听这个也好，那个也好，最后不知哪个好，什么都用，什么都用不好，只有迷糊亏损。

普通散户与高手的具体区别有以下五个方面：
一是高手要追的是确定无疑的涨势，要杀的是明白无误的跌势。而许多普通散户自以为看的明白，在认为涨跌之前就行动，往往是错误的。
二是高手在行情不确定和跌势时选择绝对的空仓观望，不急于操作，趋势明朗快速进场。而许多普通散户频繁操作，不断的有损失，碰上凶狠的主力，损失就更大了。
三是高手善于空仓，空仓时间大大多于持仓时间。而普通散户基本天天满仓，一天不满仓就不舒服，晚上就睡不好觉，第二天又急急忙忙满仓，好象一不满仓就会失去赚大钱的机会。
四是高手善于等待再等待。等待大机会的光临，然后全力出击，而普通散户没有等待，不浪费时间，天天耕耘。一天不动便手痒难捱，投机至上的原则深入骨髓之中，随波逐流成为习惯行为，一有风吹草动便不能自持。
五是高手看盘的水平比普通散户要高,出错的几率比普通散户要少。而且修正错误的反应速度要比普通散户快，不是绝对不出错，错了也不找借口。

这 五个问题都显示一般散户技术和心态的功力还不到家。要解决这些问题，唯有努力学习、学习、再学习；思考、思考、再思考，不断提高自己的技术水平和综合素 质，打造自己股海制胜的心态。你看股市十几年来，后浪推前浪，前赴后继，多少高手曾驰骋股场，应变自如，战果辉煌，名扬股海，至今却不见踪影，能在股市中 生存下来的很少，你可以想象到股市的残酷性。
《卖 油翁》这个故事向人们揭示了“熟能生巧”的道理，对于股市中散户迈向高手有深刻的借鉴意义。古代有个叫陈尧咨的人，擅长射箭，以此自矜。而卖油翁只略表赞 许。他把一个油葫芦放在地上，用一个铜钱盖在葫芦口上，将油通过钱孔灌入葫芦中，钱孔却不曾溅上一滴油。真可谓妙哉。陈尧咨的超人本领和卖油翁的绝技，是 天生就有的吗？非也。卖油翁曰：“我亦无他，唯手熟尔。”

Top gainers after March 1st follow through

DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
AAPL 11% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
GMCR 14% (02Mar2010)
PCLN 9% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
GIL 7% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
BIDU 4% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
CISG 4% (23Mar2010 1st buy)

It is not difficult to buy breakout in bull markets, what is the most difficult is to hold the winners to let them run their course.

There will be scare days, normal pull backs in the days ahead. The idea is not to be shaken out during these days. The utter most benefit of the doubt should be given to the growth leaders to allow them to rise to maximize the profits.