Market continues its uptrend started from Sept 1st. Top growth stocks, such as BIDU, AAPL, NFLX, CMG, PCLN, ARUN, FFIV etc, have handily beaten the index. As of today, top growth leaders are all holding the line tough, calling for more market appreciation. Well, anything could happen in the market, trend followers only trade based on what they see, not what they think the market will do tomorrow.
One stock which has been lagging badly since 07 market top could re-vindicate itself if the market uptrend continues. Google, being a growth leader for years, seemed to have reclaimed its growth leadership, with top and bottom line growth running hot again. The latest sales are growing at 23% and EPS around 30%.
GOOG is showing up very tightly in its chart, which essentially has traded sideways in a tight range for about 3 weeks after its huge earning induced gap up. If google can break out of the little 3 week tight range in vol, then the next target is its old high of $750.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
An Uncanny Similarity between the 1930s and 2000s
A great chart you probably want to look at is the comparison of the 1930s with 2000s. You see the uncanny similarity between the two?
If things play out exactly like the 30s, that means we will have a painful down turn ahead of us followed by a great bull market ...
History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes -- Mark Twain.
If things play out exactly like the 30s, that means we will have a painful down turn ahead of us followed by a great bull market ...
History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes -- Mark Twain.
Friday, October 15, 2010
As market uptrend continues, it is perfect time to review what Jess Livermore thinks what we should do at this very juncture ...
Here is my favorite excerpt from Reminisces of a Stock Operator, the biography of the life of legendary trader JESSE LIVERMORE.
Is this the right time to review what a classic trader he is? and on how we should handle stocks at this juncture?
"In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap. "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"
"What?" yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But "
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."
Is this the right time to review what a classic trader he is? and on how we should handle stocks at this juncture?
"In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap. "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"
"What?" yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But "
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."
Sunday, September 26, 2010
With Nasdaq 100 taking the lead and broadending growth leaders making new highs, this rally could have legs
Market usually turns when it is least expected. When everyone was thinking market could turn ugly in the late August when S&P-500 hang dearly above the important 1040 support level, it followed though with conviction to the upside on Sept 1st.
Since September 1st, Nasdaq has run up 12%, followed by Russell 2000 11%, SP-500 and NYSE 9%; Dow Jones 8%. Nasdaq 100 is the strongest running up 15% with fund managers continue to pump money into the most liquid names. All major indices close above their corresponding Aug high, bolting the market to a solid intermediate uptrend.
Top notched growth stocks are running hot with big cap growth leaders, such as AAPL, BIDU, PCLN making all time highs. Leadership are broadening with participation from various industry group such as Leisure, retail, computer software, computer hardware, internet, telecom, construction machinery, fertilizer. Semi conductors are playing a catch up game while the financials continue to labor. The negative divergence from the financials will eventually come back to haunt the market.
In Livermore's book, he often talks about Wall Street Suckers. One suckers' play is to short the high flyers in a bull market. In finance discussion board, I see people start to short NFLX, AMZN etc. If you do, you better think twice. The following stocks, which I own, have very big short interest. Those who short these are the ones being screwed to provide the fume to stocks' furious price gains when the trend turns solidly higher. Don't short the high fliers, stupid!
Short interest:
EBIX: 40% (11 million out of 27 million float)
NFLX: 30% (12.5 million out of 40.8 million float)
ARUN: 29% (17.7 million out of 61.2 million float)
GMCR: 20% (22 million out of 108 million float)
CMG: 13% (3.9 million out of 30.2 million float)
Learn the market before you put up your trade.
Since September 1st, Nasdaq has run up 12%, followed by Russell 2000 11%, SP-500 and NYSE 9%; Dow Jones 8%. Nasdaq 100 is the strongest running up 15% with fund managers continue to pump money into the most liquid names. All major indices close above their corresponding Aug high, bolting the market to a solid intermediate uptrend.
Top notched growth stocks are running hot with big cap growth leaders, such as AAPL, BIDU, PCLN making all time highs. Leadership are broadening with participation from various industry group such as Leisure, retail, computer software, computer hardware, internet, telecom, construction machinery, fertilizer. Semi conductors are playing a catch up game while the financials continue to labor. The negative divergence from the financials will eventually come back to haunt the market.
In Livermore's book, he often talks about Wall Street Suckers. One suckers' play is to short the high flyers in a bull market. In finance discussion board, I see people start to short NFLX, AMZN etc. If you do, you better think twice. The following stocks, which I own, have very big short interest. Those who short these are the ones being screwed to provide the fume to stocks' furious price gains when the trend turns solidly higher. Don't short the high fliers, stupid!
Short interest:
EBIX: 40% (11 million out of 27 million float)
NFLX: 30% (12.5 million out of 40.8 million float)
ARUN: 29% (17.7 million out of 61.2 million float)
GMCR: 20% (22 million out of 108 million float)
CMG: 13% (3.9 million out of 30.2 million float)
Learn the market before you put up your trade.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Stock market is a discounting mechnism of the future
you know my philosophy on stock market is always price/volume is your first indicator, everything else is secondary ... including economic numbers ...
Stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future, not the present ... price/vol are always ahead of macro economic indicators. You can talk a load of how bad the economic numbers are ... or you can show extreme enthusiasm on economic knowhows ... In the end ... you can't base on the economic information today to RELIABLY infer the market direction tomorrow ... The reason is SIMPLE. Stock market is always ahead.
Always react to the market, not predict the market. Always know what the market is doing and react accordingly.
Will the market crap out on Monday? Sure, if it does, simply hit eject button ...
Here we go, my top gainers as of today's close
NFLX 11% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 7% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 6% (first buy 30Aug2010)
CMG 6% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
BORN 5% (first buy market open 03Sep2010)
CRM 3% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
I am also holding GMCR, HLF, GLD, EGO
BORN is about to burst out. I am expect it to be another JKS. Someone is accumulating a big lot of BORN
Stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future, not the present ... price/vol are always ahead of macro economic indicators. You can talk a load of how bad the economic numbers are ... or you can show extreme enthusiasm on economic knowhows ... In the end ... you can't base on the economic information today to RELIABLY infer the market direction tomorrow ... The reason is SIMPLE. Stock market is always ahead.
Always react to the market, not predict the market. Always know what the market is doing and react accordingly.
Will the market crap out on Monday? Sure, if it does, simply hit eject button ...
Here we go, my top gainers as of today's close
NFLX 11% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 7% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 6% (first buy 30Aug2010)
CMG 6% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
BORN 5% (first buy market open 03Sep2010)
CRM 3% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
I am also holding GMCR, HLF, GLD, EGO
BORN is about to burst out. I am expect it to be another JKS. Someone is accumulating a big lot of BORN
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Can we get a tradable rally?
This market followed through to the upside indicating a possible tradable rally ... I am getting back to the market, currently holding the following,
TNA
ARUN
CMG
CRM
NFLX
GLD
EGO,
If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buys continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...
What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.
Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !
TNA
ARUN
CMG
CRM
NFLX
GLD
EGO,
If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buys continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...
What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.
Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
This low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book ...
Very ugly sell off in high vol puts the market back into correction mode. The 6+ week low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book.
There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.
Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,
SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.
Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.
There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.
All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.
Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.
The idea of trending follow is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. Those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.
No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.
Raise cash.
There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.
Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,
SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.
Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.
There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.
All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.
Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.
The idea of trending follow is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. Those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.
No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.
Raise cash.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Marke starts a tradable rally ...?
One thing I have learned in trading over the years is that you should always be ready for change in your market stance ... Over confidence or less of confidence in stock market is a killer for performance.
The market action over the last couple of days illustrates the importance of staying flexible in market views. Last Thursday, market reversed the Wednesday loss and gapped higher and Friday's follow through on bigger vol to the upside puts the market in a potential tradable rally. Nasdaq's vol on last Friday is the first over the last three weeks going above 50MA, indicating big boyz are stepping up to the plate. Well, there is no sure thing in stock markets, things definitely have brightened up a little for good.
There is no shortage of leadership breakout. The breakouts have been holding up, pointing to further price apreciation if the market can continue to ramp higher. The two top leading groups are cloud computing related represented by CRM, VMW, RVBD, NTAP; the other group is the fabless semiconductors represented by CRUS, ARMH, ALTR etc. Other breakout includes FFIV, ISLN, VIT, ROVI, ARUN etc.
Friday's big reversal on several big stocks should alert you to stay away from overlly bearish on the market. AMZN gapped down at the open more than 10% but closed near unchanged. The seemingly broken down former leading stocks ISRG, CMG all rampped higher after earning release.
Economic sensitive sectors seem to be on the mend. Commodity stocks seem to find a bottom (at least in the short term bases). Construction and machinery stocks look to be basing nicely. These are all supportive to the health of the market rally.
I am willing to take a bet ... I am going to buy the following stocks on Monday. My capital commitment will be 30%
Fabless semi: CAVM, SWKS, LSCC
Retail: CMG
Cloud Computing: CRM
One thing I have learned in trading over the years is that you should always be ready for change in your market stance ... Over confidence or less of confidence in stock market is a killer for performance.
The market action over the last couple of days illustrates the importance of staying flexible in market views. Last Thursday, market reversed the Wednesday loss and gapped higher and Friday's follow through on bigger vol to the upside puts the market in a potential tradable rally. Nasdaq's vol on last Friday is the first over the last three weeks going above 50MA, indicating big boyz are stepping up to the plate. Well, there is no sure thing in stock markets, things definitely have brightened up a little for good.
There is no shortage of leadership breakout. The breakouts have been holding up, pointing to further price apreciation if the market can continue to ramp higher. The two top leading groups are cloud computing related represented by CRM, VMW, RVBD, NTAP; the other group is the fabless semiconductors represented by CRUS, ARMH, ALTR etc. Other breakout includes FFIV, ISLN, VIT, ROVI, ARUN etc.
Friday's big reversal on several big stocks should alert you to stay away from overlly bearish on the market. AMZN gapped down at the open more than 10% but closed near unchanged. The seemingly broken down former leading stocks ISRG, CMG all rampped higher after earning release.
Economic sensitive sectors seem to be on the mend. Commodity stocks seem to find a bottom (at least in the short term bases). Construction and machinery stocks look to be basing nicely. These are all supportive to the health of the market rally.
I am willing to take a bet ... I am going to buy the following stocks on Monday. My capital commitment will be 30%
Fabless semi: CAVM, SWKS, LSCC
Retail: CMG
Cloud Computing: CRM
Thursday, July 1, 2010
History paints a bleak picture
A very nice article comparing the current market to the past 3 bear markets,
History paints a bleak picture
History paints a bleak picture
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Profile of Trading Greatness -- What makes a great trader?
An excellent paper on trading psychology:
In the 1983 movie "Trading Places," Eddie Murphy (a wily street con-artist) and Dan Akroyd (an ivy-league heir and investor) had their identities reversed by two wagering millionaires. Could Eddie Murphy, with no prior experience, succeed in the trading pits? Could Dan Akroyd pull himself out of forced homelessness with nothing but his own smarts? The comedic pair ultimately outwitted their interlopers and made a killing in "Frozen Organe Juice" futures. Yet the question those two devious millionaires gambled on remains unsolved, is it innate skill or life experience that makes a trader great?
Please take the trader's personality test before you read what follows.
High-performance traits
Researchers have begun analyzing the psychological components of outstanding trader performance. It turns out that several emotional and personality characteristics are correlated with superior trading in recent studies.
Psychological traits that relate to successful trading are discussed below. The traits are measured using different techniques that include mailed surveys, personality inventories, and psycho physiological measurements. What follows are simplified explanations of various research findings. Due to the simplified nature of the research interpretations, some of the information may be unintentionally distorted.
1) Low emotional reactivity.
The most important characteristic of outstanding traders appears to be low emotional reactivity during periods of market turbulence: "stability during volatility." (Lo and Repin, 2005). In one study Andrew Lo and Dmitry Repin used psycho physiological equipment to measure heart rate, blood pressure, and skin conductance while traders performed real-time trading. They found that more experienced traders had less physiological reactivity to information surprises (Lo and Repin, 2002). Additionally, Oblechner (2004) found that "emotional stability is considered almost equally crucial [to judgment] for a successful foreign exchange trader."
2) Low illusion of control AND likely to believe in the occurrence of chance (random) events.
Winning traders do not feel that they have control over market price action, and they have a strong belief in the role of chance events in shaping market prices. Winning traders prepare for their trades with thorough research. Before they enter into positions, contingencies have been thought through, and their plan is in place.
Losing traders feel that they have some control or sway over price movements, and they do not believe in the influence of chance events on their trading performance. Because they attribute control to themselves, losing traders are more emotionally affected by mistakes - "it was my fault" - and therefore have more emotional difficulty recovering from losses. Likewise, losing traders become elated by successful performance, and they are more likely to believe that it was their "brilliance" or "expertise" that led to their latest wins. The attribution of control and chance to oneself leads to greater emotional reactivity to both ups and downs in performance.
Other researchers have found that the illusion of control among experimental trading subjects led to under performance relative to others (Fenton O'Creevy, 1998).
3) Low Overconfidence.
Overconfidence refers to a mis-appraisal of one's foresight, talent, and abilities as being better than they really are. Overconfident traders tend to trade too frequently and tend to ignore danger signs regarding their positions. Biais et al found that overconfidence is correlated with sub-par performance among experimental subjects in a trading environment (2001).
In a now famous study, Terrence Odean and Brad Barber (1998) analyzed 10,000 brokerage accounts at Schwab. They found that overconfident investors tend to sell their winning stocks to early and stay in underperforming stocks too long, leading to 3.5% annual under performance of the market. The actual nature of overconfidence is still debated, and Odean and Barber's definition of overconfidence above may now be more reflective of other phenomena such as the disposition effect.
Academics now generally accept that overconfidence refers to one's belief in the superiority of one's information, superiority in abilities, and superiority in probabilistic forecasting (in contrast to reality). Overconfident business people, including entrepreneurs and brokers in two studies, actually attract more business. Although the overconfident brokers underperform in their investment recommendations, they attract more clients.
4) High Self-discipline.
Self-discipline relates to how we manage our impulses. Self-disciplined people are better able to control and channel their impulses towards goals. Self-discipline is a facet of conscientiousness.
Thomas Oberlechner from Webster University in Vienna mailed a survey form to 600 professional foreign exchange traders in Europe and the UK (2004). 54% of the survey forms were returned. Each survey form asked traders to rank the most important characteristics of successful traders out of a list of 23. Of the individual items, the most highly ranked were (1) quick reaction time, (2) discipline, (3) experience, (4) concentration, and (5) stress resistance. Out of eight "factors" he derived from sub-groupings of the 23 characteristics, "disciplined cooperation" was ranked most highly.
Biais et al (2001) found that subjects who scored high on a measure of impulsivity (the opposite of self-discipline) placed more trades, without improving performance.
5) Self-awareness.
Self-awareness is an enhanced consciousness of one's own physical and emotional state. Additionally, self-aware individuals often have logical reasoning behind their choices and behavior. Self-awareness is one of the key traits of individuals who have high "emotional intelligence." Emotional intelligence (EQ) is associated with long-term success in most vocations, and it is more predictive of vocational success than IQ. Biais et al (2001) found that highly "self-monitoring" participants in an experimental financial market place more profitable orders than others.
6) Decisiveness
Oberlechner (2004) reports that a "tackling attitude" is necessary for trader success. Kahn and Cooper (1996) report that decisiveness is essential for traders, regardless of the stressors they are facing on or off the trading floors.
Assessing trading emotions
Personality scales, such as the NEO personality inventory used in our "Investing Personality Test," measure one's propensity to experience particular emotions and utilize certain coping mechanisms in daily life. The NEO test examines a moderate range of personality traits such as conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness, extraversion, and agreeableness.
In general, by the age of 18 our personalities are somewhat fixed and will not change much over our lifetimes. While personality traits are difficult to change, there are maladaptive habits and coping strategies associated with personality styles that can be managed for greater success.
Many authors have concluded, without studying large samples of traders, that personality traits are themselves not important for trading (Lo et al, 2005 in a study of 36 traders).
Most of us assume, as Jack Schwager concludes in his book "Stock Market Wizards", that traders do best if they adjust their trading style to match their personality. And this is true as a good first guess, however there are some tantalizing findings of personality traits that predispose traders to success.
Fenton-O'Creevy, who studied 118 professional traders for European investment banks, found that successful traders tend to be emotionally stable introverts who are open to new experiences (2004).
Trading coach Brett Steenbarger reports that a study of 64 traders at one of Linda Bradford Raschke's LBR seminars demonstrated that high conscientiousness was the most reliable predictor of trading success. Conversely, Steenbarger found that high openness and high neuroticism are correlated with trading problems (2003). He summates these findings as "one important lesson: Success in trading is related to the ability to stay consistent and plan-driven."
On the Marketpsych.com website, we also have two psychopathology measurement scales that are used to assess the presence of clinical disorders such as inattention and impulsivity, gambling, anxiety, depression, obsessiveness, or substance abuse.
Techniques such as psycho physiological measurement can be used to assess emotional reactivity. Reactivity can be measured via changes in skin conductance during periods of surprise or stress. Additionally, it appears that fMRI brain imaging can be used to assess emotional reactivity in the brain's limbic system.
In the 1983 movie "Trading Places," Eddie Murphy (a wily street con-artist) and Dan Akroyd (an ivy-league heir and investor) had their identities reversed by two wagering millionaires. Could Eddie Murphy, with no prior experience, succeed in the trading pits? Could Dan Akroyd pull himself out of forced homelessness with nothing but his own smarts? The comedic pair ultimately outwitted their interlopers and made a killing in "Frozen Organe Juice" futures. Yet the question those two devious millionaires gambled on remains unsolved, is it innate skill or life experience that makes a trader great?
Please take the trader's personality test before you read what follows.
High-performance traits
Researchers have begun analyzing the psychological components of outstanding trader performance. It turns out that several emotional and personality characteristics are correlated with superior trading in recent studies.
Psychological traits that relate to successful trading are discussed below. The traits are measured using different techniques that include mailed surveys, personality inventories, and psycho physiological measurements. What follows are simplified explanations of various research findings. Due to the simplified nature of the research interpretations, some of the information may be unintentionally distorted.
1) Low emotional reactivity.
The most important characteristic of outstanding traders appears to be low emotional reactivity during periods of market turbulence: "stability during volatility." (Lo and Repin, 2005). In one study Andrew Lo and Dmitry Repin used psycho physiological equipment to measure heart rate, blood pressure, and skin conductance while traders performed real-time trading. They found that more experienced traders had less physiological reactivity to information surprises (Lo and Repin, 2002). Additionally, Oblechner (2004) found that "emotional stability is considered almost equally crucial [to judgment] for a successful foreign exchange trader."
2) Low illusion of control AND likely to believe in the occurrence of chance (random) events.
Winning traders do not feel that they have control over market price action, and they have a strong belief in the role of chance events in shaping market prices. Winning traders prepare for their trades with thorough research. Before they enter into positions, contingencies have been thought through, and their plan is in place.
Losing traders feel that they have some control or sway over price movements, and they do not believe in the influence of chance events on their trading performance. Because they attribute control to themselves, losing traders are more emotionally affected by mistakes - "it was my fault" - and therefore have more emotional difficulty recovering from losses. Likewise, losing traders become elated by successful performance, and they are more likely to believe that it was their "brilliance" or "expertise" that led to their latest wins. The attribution of control and chance to oneself leads to greater emotional reactivity to both ups and downs in performance.
Other researchers have found that the illusion of control among experimental trading subjects led to under performance relative to others (Fenton O'Creevy, 1998).
3) Low Overconfidence.
Overconfidence refers to a mis-appraisal of one's foresight, talent, and abilities as being better than they really are. Overconfident traders tend to trade too frequently and tend to ignore danger signs regarding their positions. Biais et al found that overconfidence is correlated with sub-par performance among experimental subjects in a trading environment (2001).
In a now famous study, Terrence Odean and Brad Barber (1998) analyzed 10,000 brokerage accounts at Schwab. They found that overconfident investors tend to sell their winning stocks to early and stay in underperforming stocks too long, leading to 3.5% annual under performance of the market. The actual nature of overconfidence is still debated, and Odean and Barber's definition of overconfidence above may now be more reflective of other phenomena such as the disposition effect.
Academics now generally accept that overconfidence refers to one's belief in the superiority of one's information, superiority in abilities, and superiority in probabilistic forecasting (in contrast to reality). Overconfident business people, including entrepreneurs and brokers in two studies, actually attract more business. Although the overconfident brokers underperform in their investment recommendations, they attract more clients.
4) High Self-discipline.
Self-discipline relates to how we manage our impulses. Self-disciplined people are better able to control and channel their impulses towards goals. Self-discipline is a facet of conscientiousness.
Thomas Oberlechner from Webster University in Vienna mailed a survey form to 600 professional foreign exchange traders in Europe and the UK (2004). 54% of the survey forms were returned. Each survey form asked traders to rank the most important characteristics of successful traders out of a list of 23. Of the individual items, the most highly ranked were (1) quick reaction time, (2) discipline, (3) experience, (4) concentration, and (5) stress resistance. Out of eight "factors" he derived from sub-groupings of the 23 characteristics, "disciplined cooperation" was ranked most highly.
Biais et al (2001) found that subjects who scored high on a measure of impulsivity (the opposite of self-discipline) placed more trades, without improving performance.
5) Self-awareness.
Self-awareness is an enhanced consciousness of one's own physical and emotional state. Additionally, self-aware individuals often have logical reasoning behind their choices and behavior. Self-awareness is one of the key traits of individuals who have high "emotional intelligence." Emotional intelligence (EQ) is associated with long-term success in most vocations, and it is more predictive of vocational success than IQ. Biais et al (2001) found that highly "self-monitoring" participants in an experimental financial market place more profitable orders than others.
6) Decisiveness
Oberlechner (2004) reports that a "tackling attitude" is necessary for trader success. Kahn and Cooper (1996) report that decisiveness is essential for traders, regardless of the stressors they are facing on or off the trading floors.
Assessing trading emotions
Personality scales, such as the NEO personality inventory used in our "Investing Personality Test," measure one's propensity to experience particular emotions and utilize certain coping mechanisms in daily life. The NEO test examines a moderate range of personality traits such as conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness, extraversion, and agreeableness.
In general, by the age of 18 our personalities are somewhat fixed and will not change much over our lifetimes. While personality traits are difficult to change, there are maladaptive habits and coping strategies associated with personality styles that can be managed for greater success.
Many authors have concluded, without studying large samples of traders, that personality traits are themselves not important for trading (Lo et al, 2005 in a study of 36 traders).
Most of us assume, as Jack Schwager concludes in his book "Stock Market Wizards", that traders do best if they adjust their trading style to match their personality. And this is true as a good first guess, however there are some tantalizing findings of personality traits that predispose traders to success.
Fenton-O'Creevy, who studied 118 professional traders for European investment banks, found that successful traders tend to be emotionally stable introverts who are open to new experiences (2004).
Trading coach Brett Steenbarger reports that a study of 64 traders at one of Linda Bradford Raschke's LBR seminars demonstrated that high conscientiousness was the most reliable predictor of trading success. Conversely, Steenbarger found that high openness and high neuroticism are correlated with trading problems (2003). He summates these findings as "one important lesson: Success in trading is related to the ability to stay consistent and plan-driven."
On the Marketpsych.com website, we also have two psychopathology measurement scales that are used to assess the presence of clinical disorders such as inattention and impulsivity, gambling, anxiety, depression, obsessiveness, or substance abuse.
Techniques such as psycho physiological measurement can be used to assess emotional reactivity. Reactivity can be measured via changes in skin conductance during periods of surprise or stress. Additionally, it appears that fMRI brain imaging can be used to assess emotional reactivity in the brain's limbic system.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Sometimes, it takes the patience to win you out in a yo-yo market.
An inside day with diminishing vol on the big board. Here is the definition of the inside day from investorpedia,
What Does Inside Day Mean?
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.
An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.
Now here is an interesting tidbits on the trading front,
Computer studies suggest that inside days— where the high is lower than the previous day's high and the low is higher than the previous day's low— provide very reliable t entries in the S&P 500 futures market. The basic trading pattern is an inside day (ID) followed by a sale if the next day's market opens lower or a buy if next day's market opens higher. Entry is on the open and exit is on the same day's close without a stop.
In computerized tests, this basic procedure produced 68% winning trades in the S&P between 1982 and 1987. This is a reasonably high percentage and suggests a strong tendency or bias for prices to continue in the direction of the open the day after any inside day.
Refinements
One simple variation of this pattern—discerning whether the ID close and next day's open are in the same direction—produces an even higher percentage of winning trades. The ID has a higher close than the previous day and is followed by a higher open. A buy is taken on the open and exited on the close. A sale is taken when the ID has a lower close and is followed by a lower open.
What do we have tomorrow? a weak opening due to Chinese Manufacturing data and Euro area problems. So it is interesting to see how the market unfolds tomorrow.
As for as leading growth stocks, majority I am monitoring are staying healthy or digesting the previous big run ups (AAPL, BIDU, PCLN, GIL, NFLX, APKT, VRX, CMG, RVBD, VMW, SNDK, FFIV, TPX etc). As for the turn around stocks, such as UAUA, LVS and housing stocks are also behaving constructive.
GOLD is perking up to finish its basing. I think GLD should challenge 120. Once 120 is broken ... then sky is the limit.
When market started its overdue correction, it pays to exercise patience to win you out in a yo-yo market. As far as the growth stocks concern, they are nothing but consolidating, which does not mean they won't tumble if the market tumbles the next few days.
What Does Inside Day Mean?
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.
An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.
Now here is an interesting tidbits on the trading front,
Computer studies suggest that inside days— where the high is lower than the previous day's high and the low is higher than the previous day's low— provide very reliable t entries in the S&P 500 futures market. The basic trading pattern is an inside day (ID) followed by a sale if the next day's market opens lower or a buy if next day's market opens higher. Entry is on the open and exit is on the same day's close without a stop.
In computerized tests, this basic procedure produced 68% winning trades in the S&P between 1982 and 1987. This is a reasonably high percentage and suggests a strong tendency or bias for prices to continue in the direction of the open the day after any inside day.
Refinements
One simple variation of this pattern—discerning whether the ID close and next day's open are in the same direction—produces an even higher percentage of winning trades. The ID has a higher close than the previous day and is followed by a higher open. A buy is taken on the open and exited on the close. A sale is taken when the ID has a lower close and is followed by a lower open.
What do we have tomorrow? a weak opening due to Chinese Manufacturing data and Euro area problems. So it is interesting to see how the market unfolds tomorrow.
As for as leading growth stocks, majority I am monitoring are staying healthy or digesting the previous big run ups (AAPL, BIDU, PCLN, GIL, NFLX, APKT, VRX, CMG, RVBD, VMW, SNDK, FFIV, TPX etc). As for the turn around stocks, such as UAUA, LVS and housing stocks are also behaving constructive.
GOLD is perking up to finish its basing. I think GLD should challenge 120. Once 120 is broken ... then sky is the limit.
When market started its overdue correction, it pays to exercise patience to win you out in a yo-yo market. As far as the growth stocks concern, they are nothing but consolidating, which does not mean they won't tumble if the market tumbles the next few days.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Change of the market character?
Heavy distribution from the top. Are we embarking on a short term correction of 3-5% or an intermediate correction of 10+-%? No one knows, guess need not, let the market tell us what it wants to do. Either case, be prepared.
Several developments have called the market correction overdue,
First of all, top growth stocks have been quite extended. Look at AAPL or BIDU, the law of normality calls for correction.
2nd, bearish break downs in emerging market. Shanghai stock index has lead the word market out of the recession, but it has been lagging US market badly for the past 6 months. The technical picture of Shanghai Stock index looks very bearish, the deterioration of Chinese ADRs (except a few, e.g. BIDU, VIT, CTRP) over the past several months calls for deeper correction in Chinese market.
3rd, distribution days are piling up. Regardless what the news are which trigger the sell off, the unequivocal selling from big boyz should raise your alert level.
When market starts to correct, it is prudent to raise cash, move off margins, monitor closely the current holdings. In bear phases, next leaders usually emerge as the strongest candidates which go through shallower corrections and show stronger relative strength.
There is no need to sell out all your winners. If you enjoy a healthy gain of 20% in AAPL when it broke out of its last base on Mar 5th, you may decide to sit through the correction. The ability to hold on to big winners over time is the crucial step toward winning big $.
Several developments have called the market correction overdue,
First of all, top growth stocks have been quite extended. Look at AAPL or BIDU, the law of normality calls for correction.
2nd, bearish break downs in emerging market. Shanghai stock index has lead the word market out of the recession, but it has been lagging US market badly for the past 6 months. The technical picture of Shanghai Stock index looks very bearish, the deterioration of Chinese ADRs (except a few, e.g. BIDU, VIT, CTRP) over the past several months calls for deeper correction in Chinese market.
3rd, distribution days are piling up. Regardless what the news are which trigger the sell off, the unequivocal selling from big boyz should raise your alert level.
When market starts to correct, it is prudent to raise cash, move off margins, monitor closely the current holdings. In bear phases, next leaders usually emerge as the strongest candidates which go through shallower corrections and show stronger relative strength.
There is no need to sell out all your winners. If you enjoy a healthy gain of 20% in AAPL when it broke out of its last base on Mar 5th, you may decide to sit through the correction. The ability to hold on to big winners over time is the crucial step toward winning big $.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
高手与普通散户的区别 （转摘)
顶尖高手用境界，一流高手用趋势，二流高手用技术，普通散户用迷糊。最高境界的人在讲心境如何，什么也不看，只用感觉就能炒好股赚钱。我说顶尖高手是走过迷 糊阶段。用趋势的人说趋势无敌，看明白了趋势你就能赚钱，用技术的人说，你什么也不信，踏踏实实的学好技术，你就能赚钱，惟有许多散户没有自己的方法，没 有自己的主张，听这个也好，那个也好，最后不知哪个好，什么都用，什么都用不好，只有迷糊亏损。
普通散户与高手的具体区别有以下五个方面：
一是高手要追的是确定无疑的涨势，要杀的是明白无误的跌势。而许多普通散户自以为看的明白，在认为涨跌之前就行动，往往是错误的。
二是高手在行情不确定和跌势时选择绝对的空仓观望，不急于操作，趋势明朗快速进场。而许多普通散户频繁操作，不断的有损失，碰上凶狠的主力，损失就更大了。
三是高手善于空仓，空仓时间大大多于持仓时间。而普通散户基本天天满仓，一天不满仓就不舒服，晚上就睡不好觉，第二天又急急忙忙满仓，好象一不满仓就会失去赚大钱的机会。
四是高手善于等待再等待。等待大机会的光临，然后全力出击，而普通散户没有等待，不浪费时间，天天耕耘。一天不动便手痒难捱，投机至上的原则深入骨髓之中，随波逐流成为习惯行为，一有风吹草动便不能自持。
五是高手看盘的水平比普通散户要高,出错的几率比普通散户要少。而且修正错误的反应速度要比普通散户快，不是绝对不出错，错了也不找借口。
这 五个问题都显示一般散户技术和心态的功力还不到家。要解决这些问题，唯有努力学习、学习、再学习；思考、思考、再思考，不断提高自己的技术水平和综合素 质，打造自己股海制胜的心态。你看股市十几年来，后浪推前浪，前赴后继，多少高手曾驰骋股场，应变自如，战果辉煌，名扬股海，至今却不见踪影，能在股市中 生存下来的很少，你可以想象到股市的残酷性。
《卖 油翁》这个故事向人们揭示了“熟能生巧”的道理，对于股市中散户迈向高手有深刻的借鉴意义。古代有个叫陈尧咨的人，擅长射箭，以此自矜。而卖油翁只略表赞 许。他把一个油葫芦放在地上，用一个铜钱盖在葫芦口上，将油通过钱孔灌入葫芦中，钱孔却不曾溅上一滴油。真可谓妙哉。陈尧咨的超人本领和卖油翁的绝技，是 天生就有的吗？非也。卖油翁曰：“我亦无他，唯手熟尔。”
普通散户与高手的具体区别有以下五个方面：
一是高手要追的是确定无疑的涨势，要杀的是明白无误的跌势。而许多普通散户自以为看的明白，在认为涨跌之前就行动，往往是错误的。
二是高手在行情不确定和跌势时选择绝对的空仓观望，不急于操作，趋势明朗快速进场。而许多普通散户频繁操作，不断的有损失，碰上凶狠的主力，损失就更大了。
三是高手善于空仓，空仓时间大大多于持仓时间。而普通散户基本天天满仓，一天不满仓就不舒服，晚上就睡不好觉，第二天又急急忙忙满仓，好象一不满仓就会失去赚大钱的机会。
四是高手善于等待再等待。等待大机会的光临，然后全力出击，而普通散户没有等待，不浪费时间，天天耕耘。一天不动便手痒难捱，投机至上的原则深入骨髓之中，随波逐流成为习惯行为，一有风吹草动便不能自持。
五是高手看盘的水平比普通散户要高,出错的几率比普通散户要少。而且修正错误的反应速度要比普通散户快，不是绝对不出错，错了也不找借口。
这 五个问题都显示一般散户技术和心态的功力还不到家。要解决这些问题，唯有努力学习、学习、再学习；思考、思考、再思考，不断提高自己的技术水平和综合素 质，打造自己股海制胜的心态。你看股市十几年来，后浪推前浪，前赴后继，多少高手曾驰骋股场，应变自如，战果辉煌，名扬股海，至今却不见踪影，能在股市中 生存下来的很少，你可以想象到股市的残酷性。
《卖 油翁》这个故事向人们揭示了“熟能生巧”的道理，对于股市中散户迈向高手有深刻的借鉴意义。古代有个叫陈尧咨的人，擅长射箭，以此自矜。而卖油翁只略表赞 许。他把一个油葫芦放在地上，用一个铜钱盖在葫芦口上，将油通过钱孔灌入葫芦中，钱孔却不曾溅上一滴油。真可谓妙哉。陈尧咨的超人本领和卖油翁的绝技，是 天生就有的吗？非也。卖油翁曰：“我亦无他，唯手熟尔。”
Friday, April 9, 2010
Top gainers after March 1st follow through
DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
AAPL 11% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
GMCR 14% (02Mar2010)
PCLN 9% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
GIL 7% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
BIDU 4% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
CISG 4% (23Mar2010 1st buy)
It is not difficult to buy breakout in bull markets, what is the most difficult is to hold the winners to let them run their course.
There will be scare days, normal pull backs in the days ahead. The idea is not to be shaken out during these days. The utter most benefit of the doubt should be given to the growth leaders to allow them to rise to maximize the profits.
AAPL 11% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
GMCR 14% (02Mar2010)
PCLN 9% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
GIL 7% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
BIDU 4% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)
CISG 4% (23Mar2010 1st buy)
It is not difficult to buy breakout in bull markets, what is the most difficult is to hold the winners to let them run their course.
There will be scare days, normal pull backs in the days ahead. The idea is not to be shaken out during these days. The utter most benefit of the doubt should be given to the growth leaders to allow them to rise to maximize the profits.
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