Sunday, September 26, 2010

With Nasdaq 100 taking the lead and broadending growth leaders making new highs, this rally could have legs

Market usually turns when it is least expected. When everyone was thinking market could turn ugly in the late August when S&P-500 hang dearly above the important 1040 support level, it followed though with conviction to the upside on Sept 1st.

Since September 1st, Nasdaq has run up 12%, followed by Russell 2000 11%, SP-500 and NYSE 9%; Dow Jones 8%. Nasdaq 100 is the strongest running up 15% with fund managers continue to pump money into the most liquid names. All major indices close above their corresponding Aug high, bolting the market to a solid intermediate uptrend.

Top notched growth stocks are running hot with big cap growth leaders, such as AAPL, BIDU, PCLN making all time highs. Leadership are broadening with participation from various industry group such as Leisure, retail, computer software, computer hardware, internet, telecom, construction machinery, fertilizer. Semi conductors are playing a catch up game while the financials continue to labor. The negative divergence from the financials will eventually come back to haunt the market.

In Livermore's book, he often talks about Wall Street Suckers. One suckers' play is to short the high flyers in a bull market. In finance discussion board, I see people start to short NFLX, AMZN etc. If you do, you better think twice. The following stocks, which I own, have very big short interest. Those who short these are the ones being screwed to provide the fume to stocks' furious price gains when the trend turns solidly higher. Don't short the high fliers, stupid!

Short interest:
EBIX: 40% (11 million out of 27 million float)
NFLX: 30% (12.5 million out of 40.8 million float)
ARUN: 29% (17.7 million out of 61.2 million float)
GMCR: 20% (22 million out of 108 million float)
CMG: 13% (3.9 million out of 30.2 million float)

Learn the market before you put up your trade.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Stock market is a discounting mechnism of the future

you know my philosophy on stock market is always price/volume is your first indicator, everything else is secondary ... including economic numbers ...

Stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future, not the present ... price/vol are always ahead of macro economic indicators. You can talk a load of how bad the economic numbers are ... or you can show extreme enthusiasm on economic knowhows ... In the end ... you can't base on the economic information today to RELIABLY infer the market direction tomorrow ... The reason is SIMPLE. Stock market is always ahead.

Always react to the market, not predict the market. Always know what the market is doing and react accordingly.

Will the market crap out on Monday? Sure, if it does, simply hit eject button ...

Here we go, my top gainers as of today's close

NFLX 11% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 7% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 6% (first buy 30Aug2010)
CMG 6% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
BORN 5% (first buy market open 03Sep2010)
CRM 3% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)

I am also holding GMCR, HLF, GLD, EGO

BORN is about to burst out. I am expect it to be another JKS. Someone is accumulating a big lot of BORN

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Can we get a tradable rally?

This market followed through to the upside indicating a possible tradable rally ... I am getting back to the market, currently holding the following,

TNA
ARUN
CMG
CRM
NFLX
GLD
EGO,

If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buys continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...

What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.

Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !